Predictive Validity

Predictive validity is a form of criterion validity that tests whether a measure's scores forecast an outcome that hasn't happened yet.

Predictive validity is a form of criterion validity that tests whether a measure's scores forecast an outcome that hasn't happened yet.

A classic example: a company gives a conscientiousness assessment to job applicants during hiring, then checks a year later whether the people who scored higher actually turned in stronger performance reviews. If they did, the test has predictive validity for that outcome. What makes this distinct from concurrent validity is the gap in time — the test comes first, and the real world has to play out before you find out whether the score meant anything.

This is often the more valuable, and more difficult, form of criterion validity to establish. It's one thing for a test to line up with how someone is doing right now; it's a stronger claim to say a test taken today tells you something real about a year or a decade from now. That's exactly why predictive validity is the gold standard for high-stakes assessments like hiring tools, college admissions tests, and clinical risk screenings — the whole point of using them is to know something about the future before it arrives.

Studying predictive validity properly takes patience: researchers have to test people, wait for the outcome to actually happen, and then check the correlation, which is part of why it takes years to build a solid validity case for any serious assessment.

See also

  • Validity Validity is whether a test actually measures the thing it claims to measure, rather than something else entirely.
  • Criterion Validity Criterion validity is whether a test's scores relate to a real-world outcome, or criterion, that the test is supposed to predict or correlate with.
  • Concurrent Validity Concurrent validity is a form of criterion validity that tests whether a measure correlates with an outcome assessed at roughly the same point in time.
  • Incremental Validity Incremental validity is whether a test adds meaningful predictive power beyond what's already captured by measures already in use.
  • Construct Validity Construct validity is the overarching question of whether a test actually measures the theoretical construct it claims to measure, built from evidence across many separate checks rather than one study.
  • Reliability Reliability is the consistency of a measurement — whether it produces the same result when nothing about what's being measured has actually changed.